Have you ever wondered what is NOT going to change?
Have you ever wondered what is NOT going to change in the next ten years? Read “Same as Ever: Timeless Lessons on Risk, Opportunity and Living a Good Life”.The behaviours that never change are history’s most powerful lessons because they preview what to expect in the future. The Lindy effect.
We are bad at predicting the future
It’s well-known that people are bad at predicting the future. Despite so much planning, a tiny thing no one considered invites catastrophe.The Economist publishes a forecast of the year ahead each January. Its January 2020 issue does not mention a single word about COVID-19. Its January 2022 issue does not mention a single word about Russia invading Ukraine. The biggest news, the biggest risks, and the most consequential events are always what you don’t see coming.
History knows three things
- What’s been photographed.
- What someone wrote down or recorded.
- The words spoken by people whom historians and journalists wanted to interview and who agreed to be interviewed.
And all three suffer from misinterpretation, incompleteness, embellishment, lying, and selective memory.
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