We are all forecasters

We are all forecasters. Every decision we make relates to the future in some way. Decisions made in the present are shaped by what we believe or hope the future holds. To this extent, the deliberations of today are intimately tied to our thoughts of tomorrow. That is from “Thinking the Future: New perspectives from the shoulders of giants”.

How do you know

The book asks the question. How do you know if you’re thinking about the future well? There are a number of elements:

• Mindset (fox vs hedgehog)
• Accounting for the complexity and unpredictability of the world
• Bread focus
• Not looking for single answers
• Non-linear
• Pattern recognition
• Question assumptions
• Do not take your knowledge for granted
• Process (thinking about thinking)
• Modelling
• Scenarios
• Take a stoic approach
• Accept inconvenient truths

Essence

The essence of thinking about the future is understanding the pattern of forces propelling the present into the future and seeing where those forces can lead. Your ability to adapt and revise your plans…